Middle East

A small Islamist party could decide Benjamin Netanyahu's fate


He built a hugely successful career scaremongering among Israelis about politicians from the country’s Arab minority presenting a threat from the inside. Now, Benjamin Netanyahu’s rhetoric might have come back to haunt him: election results suggest the leader’s fate may have fallen into the hands of a small party of Islamists.

With most votes tallied, the latest national election – Israel’s fourth within the span of two years – looks on course for more deadlock. Neither Netanyahu nor the opposition leader, Yair Lapid, have a clear majority to form a coalition government.

Both are tantalisingly close to a 61-seat majority in parliament but are likely to need support from the United Arab List, known by the Hebrew name Ra’am, even though it is projected to take only five or six seats.

On Tuesday night, exit polls showed the United Arab List would not even make it into the Knesset and vanish into obscurity. Yet by Wednesday, it had become a possible kingmaker, or in Netanyahu’s case, a potential kingslayer.

Mansour Abbas, 46, the group’s leader, is a conservative Muslim politician but also a pragmatist. Seeking to improve the lives of Israel’s victimised Arab minority, Abbas has not ruled out joining the hardline prime minister if it brings him influence.

Political analysts have suggested Abbas might be more willing to back the opposition, which leans more to the centre of Israeli politics. Still, after Wednesday’s results showed he could become the key factor in this election, Abbas remained coy, saying he was not “in the pocket” of either side.

“We are willing to negotiate with both sides, with anyone interested in forming a government and who views themselves as a future prime minister,” Abbas told local radio. “If there is an offer, we’ll sit and talk.”

Palestinian citizens of Israel are Arabs who remained in their towns and villages after the war surrounding the creation of Israel in 1948, and their descendants. Hundreds of thousands of others fled or were expelled. The ones who stayed make up roughly a fifth of the country’s nearly 9 million citizens.

Allying with Netanyahu would be a radical move for the United Arab List. No Arab party has ever joined a ruling Israeli coalition or been invited to do so.

Netanyahu has long sought to appeal to far-right religious and nationalist voters who fear the influence of Arabs in Israel. The Arab population broadly supports the Palestinian cause. In 2015, on election day, Netanyahu infamously said Israeli Arab voters were voting “in droves”, to rally his base.

Even if the country’s longest-serving leader can personally agree a deal with the United Arab List, he will face an even greater paradox. The 71-year-old has also bet on partnering with openly anti-Arab, far-right parties.

Netanyahu has been credited with political wizardry in the past, but bringing Islamists and far-right Jewish parties together would set a new bar.



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