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No European leader is safe as public lose faith in coronavirus responses


All across the continent, most Europeans now trust their leaders generally, and how they have handled the coronavirus pandemic in particular, a little less than when the crisis began – but nowhere has public confidence fallen as far and as fast as in the UK.

Even leaders seen as having managed Covid-19 the most successfully, such as Germany’s chancellor Angela Merkel and Denmark’s prime minister Mette Frederiksen, have suffered slight dips in popular satisfaction as the weeks have worn on.

Others, such as the French president Emmanuel Macron, have seen more significant, potentially worrying declines, but have since recovered. Compared with Britain, no other European government in YouGov’s Covid-19 perception tracker has seen public trust plunge by 30 points.

As the coronavirus crisis gathered pace in Europe three months ago, the personal approval ratings of the continent’s leaders, including Boris Johnson, surged under the common effect in times of crisis familiar to political scientists as “rally round the flag”.

As much of continental Europe endured strict lockdowns from mid-March onwards, YouGov’s rolling perception poll – which monitors the percentage of people who think their government is handling the crisis “very” or “somewhat” well – showed parallel levels of public satisfaction.

In Denmark, the figure peaked in mid-April at 88%. In Germany it was 72%, in Britain 72% and in France – where voters are consistently more critical of their governments than the rest of the continent – at 54%. Since then, as governments began the tricky process of gradually easing restrictions, voters have become more sceptical. But not, generally, by much.

Germany, which alongside a relatively relaxed six-week shutdown instituted a track and trace system that was highly effective in halting its outbreak, has recorded just under 185,000 cases and fewer than 9,000 fatalities, corresponding to a death toll per million inhabitants of 104.

With a doctorate in quantum chemistry, Merkel’s calm clarity has helped to maintain satisfaction with her government’s response at 70% this week, just two points down from its peak. Personal approval of the chancellor, in her fourth and final term, has surged to almost 80% and her centre-right CDU party has also fared well in the polls, up from 28% at the start of the crisis to 39%, according to Politico’s Poll of Polls.

Frederiksen has emerged equally strongly from the crisis in Denmark. The prime minister acted fast, closing the Scandinavian country’s borders as early as 13 March and following up a few days later by shutting all kindergartens, schools and universities and banning gatherings of more than 10 people.

One of the first EU countries to start easing its lockdown, Denmark’s per-million death toll is slightly lower than Germany’s, at just over 100. Public satisfaction with Frederiksen’s government has slipped just three points and remains at 85%, while support for her Social Democrats has surged from 27% to 35% – its highest share since 2006.

In France, one of the Europe’s harder-hit countries with a per-million death toll of 433, Macron and his government – which has coped, on balance, reasonably well, and better than many comparable countries – have been the target of heavy criticism over an early shortage of face masks and a long delay in beginning widespread testing.

But since public satisfaction in the government’s response slumped to 36% in the second half of March, it has climbed steadily back to 42% for a net fall of 14 points, while his personal approval rating stands at 44%, relatively high by French presidential standards.

Without a longstanding, grassroots power base, however, Macron remains vulnerable to a strong challenge in the 2022 presidential elections. According to French media, his entourage are worried not so much by the far-right Marine Le Pen but a populist outsider such as the comedian Jean-Marie Bigard or TV presenter Cyril Hanouna.

In Italy, Europe’s second hardest-hit country with 557 deaths per million, satisfaction with the government’s handling of the crisis has slipped 12 points from its mid-March peak, but remains at 66%.

Support for the coalition, headed by the former law professor Giuseppe Conte, however, appears not to have been much dented by the crisis: the centre-left Democratic party remains on 21%, and the anti-establishment M5S on 15%.

In Spain, which has reported Europe’s highest per-capita death toll of 580 per million, appreciation for the way the Socialist-led government has responded to the coronavirus has actually risen since mid-March, from 42% to 46%.

Voter backing for the prime minister Pedro Sánchez’s Socialist party remains stable in the polls at 27% – although the conservative opposition People’s party, which has been fiercely critical of the coalition government throughout, has been making up ground.

Only in Britain, where the death toll of more than 50,000 equates to a per-million count of more than 600, and Johnson has struggled to contain the fallout from Dominic Cummings’ controversial road trip, has the verdict on the government’s Covid-19 effort collapsed so spectacularly, from 72% in mid-March to 41% this week.

Support for the Conservative party, which had risen continuously since last summer and peaked at 52% in late March, has also now fallen to 44%.



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