Russia-Ukraine war live: Prigozhin to go to Belarus as rebellion ends and Wagner troops withdraw from Rostov

Summary

Samuel Bendett, a Russia expert at the Center for Naval Analyses, has also posted some analysis about the day’s events, in which he argues that there have to be some consequences for Prigozhin and Wagner.

“Otherwise the message is that a military force can openly challenge the state, and others have to learn that the Russian state indeed has a monopoly on violence inside the country,” he writes.

“There has to be ‘some’ accountability for the military personnel who were involved and others who made no active showing of stopping Wagner, or avoided challenging Prigozhin’s force altogether. Again, Prigozhin’s actions were a challenge to the state and those who did not prevent Wagner’s march contributed to Prigozhin’s ‘success.’”

He also notes that the Kremlin will remember who spoke out against Prigozhin and who was notable by their absence.

“Those politicians who said nothing about the crisis, were too meek in their critique of Prigozhin were noted by the Kremlin,” he wrote.

“The MOD was Prigozhin’s ultimate target, and [defence minister Sergei] Shoigu with [chief of the general staff Valery] Gerasimov were nowhere to be seen. There will have to be some explanation for their public absence. Generals Surovikin and Alekseev probably earned at least some ‘bonus points’ for their public appeals to Wagner.”

And a final thought: “Unclear yet what to make of it all right now. Wagner and Prigozhin emerging unscathed is probably a big shock for the MOD, the military and the security services.”

And from our correspondent Andrew Roth, who wrote about reactions to Wagner in Rostov for the Observer:

A thought from our correspondent Pjotr Sauer, who has been covering Russia and the war in Ukraine.

Rob Lee, a military expert at the US-based Foreign Policy Research Institute, has posted some analysis of the last 24 hours, which have given many of us whiplash. He starts by saying he has “more questions than answers”.

Regarding the Russian president, he says its “too soon to say Putin will fall anytime soon” but notes that “Putin and the MoD’s leadership look weak”.

It’s “not clear this will affect Ukraine’s offensive” but “the previous Kremlin-Wagner relationship is over” and “Wagner-Russian military cooperation will likely suffer”.

He also says Prigozhin “likely alienated many pro-war figures for doing this while Russian soldiers are defending against an offensive and killing Russian airmen” and notes that there is “a difference between soldiers and police not shooting at Wagner and joining them”.

Given Wagner’s presence overseas, “the greatest effects from this event may be felt in MENA/Africa”, says Lee.

Wagner group fighters have left the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don and are headed back to their field camps, the regional governor, Vasily Golubev, has confirmed.

The confirmation comes after Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin was pictured leaving the city, where his troops had captured the headquarters of the military’s Southern District Command on Saturday.

Under the terms of the deal brokered by Belarus to end his rebellion, he is now expected to leave Russia and go to Belarus.

I’m Helen Livingstone, taking over the blog from my colleague Hayden Vernon.

Former US intelligence officials have said that Wagner’s march on Moscow has revived fears about what would happen to Russia’s nuclear stockpile in the event of domestic upheaval, Reuters reports.

Despite an agreement on Saturday by Wagner’s boss, Yevgeny Prigozhin, to call off the insurrection, the episode signalled that President Putin’s grasp on power could be waning.

Images of tanks on Russian streets brought to mind the failed 1991 coup by communist hardliners that raised concerns about the security of the Soviet nuclear arsenal.

“The IC [intelligence community] will be super-focused on the [Russian] nuclear stockpile,” said Marc Polymeropoulos, a former senior CIA officer who oversaw the agency’s clandestine operations in Europe and Eurasia.

“You want to know who has control of the nuclear weapons because you’re worried that terrorists or bad guys like [Chechen leader Ramzan] Kadyrov might come after them for the leverage they can get,” said Daniel Hoffman, a former senior CIA officer who served as the agency’s Moscow station chief.

US officials said they did not see an immediate threat to the security of Russia’s strategic and tactical weapons.

“We have not seen any changes in the disposition of Russian nuclear forces,” said a National Security Council spokesperson in response to questions from Reuters. “Russia has a special responsibility to maintain command, control and custody of its nuclear forces and to ensure that no actions are taken that imperil strategic stability.”

All restrictions previously imposed on highways in Russia have been lifted, the country’s Tass news agency said.

The authorities of the regions bordering Moscow had been taking increasingly serious steps to slow down the Wagner column that was approaching the Russian capital before a deal between the mercenary group and the Kremlin was struck.

One video, which the BBC said it had verified, showed diggers destroying the road to Moscow in the Lipetsk region.

UK fighter jets have been scrambled to respond to Russian aircraft 21 times in the last three weeks under Nato’s air policing operations in the Baltic region, AFP reports.

The RAF Typhoons, currently operating out of Estonia, are part of so-called “quick reaction alert” aircraft used by the western alliance to secure its eastern European flank.

The UK defence secretary, Ben Wallace, said the intercepts were “a stark reminder of the value of collective defence and deterrence provided by Nato”.

The fighters, which have been operating out of an Estonian air base since March, were launched to monitor the Russian aircraft when they failed to respond to air traffic agencies, Britain’s Ministry of Defence said in a statement.

Footage on social media claims to show Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin leaving the military headquarters in the city of Rostov-on-Don that his troops had previously captured. A group of onlookers applauded and approached the car to shake hands with the mercenary chief.

Rostov-on-Don is an important tactical location for Russia’s war effort in Ukraine. It is the largest city in southern Russia and the capital of the Rostov region that adjoins parts of eastern Ukraine where the war is raging. The city is just 60 miles (100km) from the border and is home to the Russian southern military district command – the headquarters Wagner took over – whose 58th Combined Arms Army is fighting against Kyiv’s counteroffensive.