Although Marcos Jnr has equivocated on his country’s involvement in Taiwan, the trilateral summit is likely to turn the Philippines into an integral component of any joint US-Japan response to mainland Chinese kinetic action over the self-governed island.
In exchange, the Philippines is likely to seek expanded defence aid from its key allies. This brings us to the second key objective, namely reinforcement of Japan’s role as a major security player in the region. The Philippine ambassador to the US, Jose Manuel Romualdez, has revealed that Manila and Tokyo are set to arrange a rotational deployment of forces after the trilateral summit.
Japan’s foreign ministry has hailed the coming deal but denied reports of potential deployment of Japanese troops to Philippine bases, likely due to fears of political backlash, especially from the staunchly pacifist Komeito Party in the Japanese ruling coalition. In the meantime, Japan is likely to explore expanded drills with as well as exports of increasingly sophisticated weapons systems to the Philippines, with a focus on maritime security.
China ‘gravely concerned’ about reports Japan could join Aukus security pact
China ‘gravely concerned’ about reports Japan could join Aukus security pact
Tighter security cooperation among the three allies, however, could have the paradoxical effect of further intensifying geopolitical tensions in the region. Concerned about strategic encirclement, it’s highly unlikely for China to just sit idly by. The emerging alliance between Japan, Philippines and the US is likely to only reinforce zero-sum geopolitical dynamics in Asia.
Richard Heydarian is a Manila-based academic and author of Asia’s New Battlefield: US, China and the Struggle for Western Pacific, and the forthcoming Duterte’s Rise